Many US companies that loaded up on cheap and abundant debt during the past decade will face a significant hurdle when their bonds mature in the next few years. Most of the U.S. companies already are seeing declining profits and rising leverage, both of which can make it harder for weak companies to keep current on their debt servicing. If economic growth slows further and lenders become less accommodating, any failure to roll over maturing debt could spillover into other parts of the economy including the job market. There are roughly $2.5 trillion of investment-grade bonds now sit on the cusp of junk-bond territory with BBB-ratings and recently Moody’s warned that defaults in junk-bonds could easily exceed the last cycle. Not just the US market but the fact is that debt levels have exploded worldwide and yet at the same time interest rates have never been lower than they are today We think the gravitational forces will eventually bring about a healthy recession in 2020. This would cause a significant paring down of debt along with an even greater correction in equity and junk bond markets. That is, if the economy was left alone and market forces were allowed to rectify the imbalances. However, global central banks are fighting these market forces and trying to keep asset bubbles afloat by pushing interest rates even lower and returning to QE. Time will tell if QE4 will have the same efficacy as QE123. For now, we expect the market to rally into the rest of 2019.