This analysis is based on Brian Kim’s broadcast of (the second week of October). At that time Bitcoin traded near $83,300; at the time of writing () it was near $82,400 (reference prices: CoinGecko daily data). The price levels and conditions discussed below refer to the market as it stood at the time of the broadcast.
Elliott Wave analyst Brian Kim opened his latest analysis by returning to a chart he had posted on September 14, showing how XRP has since traced the structural path he anticipated. The lesson he drew was not about being correct, but about how Elliott Wave pattern recognition removes the need to guess. Rather than reacting to price action in real time, he argued, the framework lets a trader know in advance which moves to sit out entirely.
That observation carries particular weight right now, because all three assets he covered — XRP, Bitcoin, and Solana — are each presenting reasons to hold off rather than act.
XRP: Two Different Counts, One Direction
Kim walked through the XRP chart in detail, distinguishing between his preferred count and an alternate count. What stood out was that despite the two scenarios assigning different wave labels to the current structure, both arrive at the same immediate conclusion: XRP has further to fall before a meaningful entry becomes available.
On the preferred count, Kim said the structure is unfolding as a W-X-Y corrective pattern. He had previously identified the W leg and then the X bounce, and he emphasized that the X and B waves are the deceiving waves — they look like the beginning of a new rally, but they are not. Anyone who bought the X bounce was buying into a trap the wave structure already warned against.
Under the preferred count, he said traders should wait near the $1.25 level, noting that the area around that prior low would represent an especially attractive entry zone.
Under the alternate count, Kim described a different internal labeling, one in which the current move down is interpreted as a wave C. He noted that a C wave is supposed to show five sub-counts, and at the time of recording, the structure was only displaying three. On that basis, he said the C wave was not finished, and the price still needed to push down further. Under this reading, he identified $1.30 to $1.39 as the range he was watching for an entry, with the 61.8 area as a reference point within that zone.
He was explicit: right now, with XRP at approximately $1.42, neither the preferred count nor the alternate count is giving a buy signal. Both still point lower. He said he could state clearly that a much cheaper price is coming for those who wait.
He also noted that XRP draws some of the heaviest trading volume on Korean exchanges, and that many Korean retail investors hold the token, which is part of why he returns to it frequently in his analysis.
Bitcoin: Volume Divergence and the Break-Even Sellers
The Bitcoin section shifted away from Elliott Wave and toward on-chain data from Glassnode, which Kim used to explain why the market is facing resistance at current levels.
The first data point he highlighted was a volume divergence. Bitcoin’s price has continued to climb, but trading volume — including spot ETF volume shown by a purple line in the chart — has not confirmed the move. He described this as a divergence, with price going one direction and volume going the other. He was careful to say this alone does not guarantee a reversal, but he treated it as a meaningful signal worth noting alongside the wave count.
The second data point involved what Kim called the psychology of the top buyers. He described two groups: those who purchased Bitcoin six to twelve months ago, and those who bought one to two years ago. Both groups bought near prior peaks. Both groups watched the price fall below their entry. And both groups, according to the Glassnode chart he referenced, have a documented tendency to sell the moment price returns to their break-even level.
Kim put specific numbers on it. The average entry price for the one-to-two-year buyer cohort is $97,000. The average entry price for the six-to-twelve-month cohort is $89,000. As price approaches those levels, the holders in each group sell, creating resistance. He said this pattern has played out before: price climbed toward those levels, the trapped buyers sold when they got back to break-even, and the market turned down again.
He also showed IBIT, the BlackRock spot ETF, as an example of retail behavior. The green bars in the IBIT chart showed buying when price was rising, and the red bars showed heavy selling when price was falling. He described this as a textbook illustration of retail doing the opposite of what produces returns — selling into fear and buying into greed. He tied this to a broader point: the same behavioral patterns documented by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s remain intact a century later.
He did not provide a specific downside price target for Bitcoin, but he said the big picture still requires a larger downward leg before the structure becomes clear enough to draw the full picture.
Solana: Strong Fundamentals, But the Correction Is Not Done
Kim’s tone shifted noticeably when he reached Solana. He described its fundamental backdrop as among the strongest he has seen for any altcoin. He cited app revenue generated on the Solana blockchain as a differentiator, saying competing chains do not come close in comparison. He also pointed to Solana’s position in the real-world asset tokenization market, noting that the Solana blockchain is being used to trade securities, hold bonds, and manage commodities, and that the value flowing through it on this basis has been reaching new highs.
Despite all of that, Kim’s near-term structural call on Solana is to wait.
On October 5, he posted to his website that Solana had completed five wave counts at $121. Five waves up means an impulse is finished, and what follows is a corrective phase. He confirmed that the corrective phase was underway at the time of the broadcast, with Solana trading around $116. He described the expected corrective structure as an ABC pattern, consisting of three waves, and said the correction had not yet run its course.
Kim said Solana’s correction might head toward $92. He was not categorical about which level would be reached, but he said both were on the map. He also said Solana’s correction might head toward $84.
On Solana’s weekly chart, he said reaching $290 to $295 was a matter of time. He said the next buying opportunity would come when the correction ends.
He noted that Solana was previously called at $60 as a buying opportunity, and that the move to $121 represented roughly a 100 percent gain from that entry. He acknowledged that he would prefer the price to go straight up without correcting, but that is not how markets work. The correction is part of the process, and it is what creates the next meaningful entry.
What All Three Assets Are Saying at the Same Time
The through-line across XRP, Bitcoin, and Solana in this analysis is structural caution. Kim is not saying these assets are in long-term trouble. He reiterated that a move to $290 to $295 for Solana was a matter of time. His view on Bitcoin is that the big picture is still intact but requires a larger move down to confirm the shape. His view on XRP is that a high-quality buying zone is approaching.
But the key word is approaching, not here.
He acknowledged that Elliott Wave analysis is not 100 percent accurate. The framework gives probabilities and structural guidance, not certainties. What it does do, as he framed it, is give traders a map of where the road is likely to go — and right now, across all three of these assets, that map points toward waiting for a better price before committing capital.
For the full video analysis, visit: https://www.youtube.com/live/mE9scVPi-_o?si=DYTkATtIgO70AzrH
