This analysis is based on Brian Kim’s broadcast of (the fifth week of October). At that time Bitcoin traded near $77,800; at the time of writing () it was near $78,000 (reference prices: CoinGecko daily data). The price levels and conditions discussed below refer to the market as it stood at the time of the broadcast.
The Macro Storm Behind the Charts
Before examining individual wave structures, Elliott Wave analyst Brian Kim laid out the broader environment shaping his bearish outlook. He pointed to three overlapping pressure points: the trajectory of interest rates, a historically low cash-to-equity ratio in American stock accounts, and what he described as a deeply troubling financial architecture surrounding artificial intelligence.
On rates, Kim noted that while the Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate at 3.75 to 400 percent, some investment banks are assigning a 50 percent probability to a December hike. He also observed that the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 5 percent. In his view, a rising rate environment is not the backdrop that draws large institutional money into crypto markets.
On the equity side, he highlighted data suggesting that the ratio of investable cash to total holdings inside New York Stock Exchange accounts has fallen to its lowest level since 1956. He explained the implication plainly: when margin accounts are fully deployed and prices fall, forced selling cascades because investors cannot support prices with fresh purchases. In a heavily margined market, a selling event becomes self-reinforcing.
On artificial intelligence, Kim discussed the findings of investor Michael Burry regarding Anthropic’s IPO filing. Burry flagged that Anthropic had entered into approximately 537 billion dollars in computing infrastructure commitments with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. When additional contracts are included, Kim explained, the total investment commitment is roughly 12 times Anthropic’s current annual revenue. Burry further noted that Anthropic’s quarterly revenue growth rate had slowed from 144 percent to approximately 46 percent, and he warned that Amazon and Google simultaneously function as investors, suppliers, and financiers to Anthropic — a structure that amplifies financial risk if growth decelerates.
Kim also referenced hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones’s concern that companies were issuing too much stock. Kim drew his own conclusion: these macro factors remove the catalysts that would bring large institutional money into Bitcoin in the near term. Quantum computing security concerns add another layer, he said, noting that the co-founder of Stacks stated that uncertainty about quantum threats is already limiting Bitcoin’s institutional growth. Until that concern is resolved to institutional satisfaction, he argued, pension funds and large allocators will remain on the sideline.
Bitcoin: Wave Three of Three and the 74,887 Level
The core of Kim’s Bitcoin analysis rests on a wave count he has been maintaining consistently. He described a completed five-wave impulse on the four-hour chart — labeled Wave 1 through Wave 5 — followed by a corrective structure. Within that corrective structure, he said a new five-wave decline appears to be forming.
Kim stated that, if his count is correct, Bitcoin has now entered a wave three of wave three — a position he described as the most powerful event in wave analysis. He said that while an upward wave three of three produces the strongest rally in an impulse, a downward wave three of three produces the strongest selling pressure in a decline.
Given that position in the wave structure, Kim said he sees the level of 74,887 dollars breaking as a matter of time, as long as his count holds. He attributed the corrective bounce that preceded this assessment to a typical retracement — the kind that, in his experience, leads many market participants to declare support is holding.
He pushed back explicitly against that interpretation. He said he had seen commentary claiming that 79,000 dollars represented a floor that could not be broken because of concentrated buy orders. He dismissed that view, stating that pattern analysis and wave structure do not yield to order-book arguments.
Kim also discussed on-chain data from Glassnode. He noted that a period of strong ETF inflows in early October was matched shortly after by equivalent outflows — Glassnode’s data showed the same volume returning to the sell side. He connected this to the average cost basis of US ETF investors, which he cited as 81,500 dollars. With Bitcoin trading below that level, he said the psychological pressure on ETF holders is growing, and that as losses deepen, the impulse to exit accelerates. He noted that the average cost basis for short-term holders sits around 75,000 dollars, and said that if price falls below that level, further liquidation pressure from that cohort becomes likely.
Kim’s alternate scenario, which he acknowledged is held by some respected analysts relying on on-chain data, holds that a bull market has already started. He said he would change his view if price action produced a confirming five-wave advance through key resistance levels. Until that evidence appears, he said he would not revise his preferred count simply because others hold a different view.
KOSPI: Five-Wave Decline Still in Progress
Kim presented what he called a very clear Elliott Wave structure on KOSPI. He said the index staged a rally to approximately 6,100, but he identified that move as a fourth pink wave — a typical corrective bounce that he warned viewers not to misread as a resumption of a broader advance.
He explained his reasoning by reference to a flat correction pattern. In his description, the structure showed an A wave down to 5,450, a B wave that retraced back above the A wave’s starting point, and a C wave that he said broke below 5,450. He described this as a textbook flat pattern in Elliott Wave terms — though he attributed that characterization to his own analysis rather than stating it as a universal rule.
Kim said the 38 percent retracement of the wave two-to-three move comes to 6,058, and noted that the market reached 6,100 before turning back down. That proximity to his calculated retracement level gave him confidence that the fourth wave is now complete or nearly complete, and that a fifth wave decline remains ahead. Kim said KOSPI had moved lower from 6,100.
He noted that a fifth pink wave, to be valid under his count, would need to move below 5,450. Beyond that, he said KOSPI under his preferred scenario would move below 5,262 — a prior low he expects to be decisively broken as the fifth wave plays out. He added that a triangle pattern within the current corrective sub-structure could produce additional complexity, but that the directional conclusion remains the same: further downside.
Kim acknowledged that another corrective bounce within the fifth wave could again generate bullish commentary, but characterized such moves as fourth-wave noise within the larger downtrend. He said the three-wave corrective structure is the correct lens for reading KOSPI at this stage.
Solana: Corrective Target at 84 Dollars
Kim walked through Solana’s structure in detail, anchoring his analysis to a specific entry call he had made when the asset was trading near 68 dollars. At that time, he said he had identified a completed four-wave structure — labeled Wave 1 through Wave 4 — and told subscribers that the setup pointed to a significant upside move. That call was documented on his site, cwcount.com, and the asset subsequently rose to 124 dollars.
At 124 dollars, Kim said his count indicated a completed five-wave impulse from that 68-dollar base — specifically counting from a low near 60 dollars. He noted he communicated a sell signal to subscribers on or around September 28, which he said is visible in the chart history on cwcount.com.
Solana subsequently declined to approximately 98 dollars before a partial bounce. Kim said the correction is not finished. He explained that wave two corrections prefer a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the preceding impulse, citing the 618 Fibonacci number as the preferred landing zone for a second-wave correction. Applying that retracement to the move from 124 dollars back toward the origin of the impulse, he said the target is 84 dollars if the correction runs its full course. He also noted that a shallower correction could find support around 92 dollars.
He reinforced the analysis by pointing to an earlier corrective episode within the same chart. During a prior correction from 83 dollars, the 61.8 percent retracement landed near 69 dollars, and the market bounced from 70 dollars — close enough to validate the Fibonacci relationship in his view. A subsequent fourth-wave correction found support near 95 to 98 dollars, consistent with a 38 percent retracement of the relevant wave segment.
Kim said Solana’s fundamentals — including application-level revenue within its ecosystem — remain strong, and he compared Solana’s role in the blockchain space to Samsung’s role in the KOSPI index. But he was explicit: strong fundamentals do not change the wave structure. He said the correction needs to complete before the next opportunity presents itself, and that he provides daily and four-hour chart updates on cwcount.com for subscribers tracking the developing count.
Conclusion: Downside Across All Three Markets
Brian Kim’s current analysis points in a single direction across all three markets he covered. Bitcoin, in his preferred scenario, is positioned for a strong downward move, with 74,887 dollars the level he expects to break as long as the wave three of three structure he has identified continues to play out. KOSPI is tracking toward 5,262 under a fifth-wave decline that he believes is still in motion. Solana’s correction, by his Fibonacci analysis, targets 84 dollars if the move develops fully.
He was careful throughout to preserve the conditional nature of his calls. He said he requires evidence before changing his count, and that confirming five-wave price action through key resistance levels would be the signal he needs to revise his view. He also noted that despite the near-term bearish structure, a decline toward the 40,000 to 50,000 dollar range in Bitcoin would, in his view, represent a generational buying opportunity — though he did not specify timing for such a development.
Kim attributed his confidence to 30 years of pattern analysis and a proprietary database he uses to identify historical structural analogs. He said Elliott Wave does not guarantee every move, but that proper labeling and pattern recognition give traders a meaningful probabilistic map of where price is likely to go next.
Full video analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-APu1CbKlU
