This analysis is based on Brian Kim’s broadcast of (the fourth week of October). At that time Bitcoin traded near $81,300; at the time of writing () it was near $79,600 (reference prices: CoinGecko daily data). The price levels and conditions discussed below refer to the market as it stood at the time of the broadcast.
The headline narrative across financial media has centered on Bitcoin’s latest bounce and renewed optimism about a sustained rally. Elliott Wave analyst Brian Kim sees the picture differently. Across three interconnected markets — US 10-year Treasury yields, the KOSPI, and Bitcoin — he identifies corrective structures that remain unfinished. The bounce you are watching in Bitcoin is, in his reading, a short-term move inside a larger downward pattern. The KOSPI rally that has drawn buyers back in is, he argues, a deceptive three-wave structure. And the US 10-year yield, far from having peaked at 5.365%, is positioned, under his Elliott Wave count, to push toward 6%.
Each of these markets carries its own internal logic, but the thread connecting them is the same: wave structures that have not yet printed their final sub-waves. Until those sub-waves complete, Brian Kim says, the broader corrective phase is not over. What follows is a detailed walk through his current analysis of each market.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields: The 5.365% Level Is Not the Ceiling
The IMF recently issued a public warning about hedge fund activity in the US Treasury market. Brian Kim opened his analysis by placing that warning in the context of his Elliott Wave count on the 10-year yield. He noted that the IMF flagged how hedge fund participation in the US Treasury market expanded from 4% in 2022 to 9% in 2026, and that the IMF specifically pointed out that this growth depends substantially on high leverage including derivatives. He described how hedge funds use what the market calls the basis trade — borrowing heavily to capture the spread between cash Treasury prices and futures prices — and explained that if yields continue to rise and Treasury prices fall further, leveraged positions face margin calls. A forced liquidation by even one large fund, he said, can set off a chain reaction.
Against that macro backdrop, Brian Kim turned to his wave count. He stated that the move from 4.9% up to 5.365% was explosive and that what the market has seen since — a pullback toward 5.05% — is a corrective phase within the larger upward impulse, not the end of the uptrend. He was direct: breaking above 5.365%, which currently acts as the resistance level the yield needs to clear given that the upward trend is continuing, is a matter of time in his view.
The reason he gave is structural. He said the fifth red wave — the final impulse wave in the broader sequence — currently contains a gold wave count that has not finished. He identified the current position as inside the third gold wave, with the fourth and fifth gold waves still ahead. He added that within the fifth wave structure, he estimates approximately 60% of the count has been completed, with 40% still needing to develop. When those remaining sub-waves develop and proportionality and size are properly accounted for, he said, the yield reaching 6% — which is the target level he identified for when the Elliott Wave fifth-wave progression completes — is the more probable outcome. He acknowledged the chart reading could be wrong, but stated that based on the fractal count as it stands, the 6% level is easily within reach and that a further extension of the fifth wave could push even beyond that.
He also noted that a chart reference he walked through on screen showed 5.9694% at the chart level corresponding to what he labeled as 6%, reinforcing that the zone around 6% is the area his count is pointing toward.
The practical implication he drew was this: if yields continue rising, the assets hedge funds are holding — including Treasuries — lose value, reducing the net asset base and tightening margin ratios, which increases the risk of forced selling across multiple asset classes.
KOSPI: Three Waves Down Are Not Yet Complete
Brian Kim then turned to the KOSPI. He framed the current structure within a consistent historical observation: every meaningful KOSPI bull market in the chart’s history has been preceded by a completed three-wave corrective sequence. He said this pattern has repeated itself at multiple points across the index’s history, and he sees no reason for the current cycle to be different.
The current corrective structure he is tracking is a three-wave decline. He described the internal count as follows. Within the C-wave of the broader correction, he is counting five sub-waves. He said wave 1, wave 2, and wave 3 of that internal count have completed. The market is currently in wave 4 of that internal sequence, which he characterized as a sideways corrective phase. He noted that wave 4 of an internal impulse typically moves sideways rather than deep, with a common retracement reference of 38%. He calculated 6,058 as a possible wave 4 retracement level using the common 38% reference from 5,450. He said he did not know whether wave 4 had finished, noting a high of 5,816 and the possibility of further sideways movement or a deeper pullback.
Once wave 4 resolves, he said, wave 5 of the internal count needs to develop. He identified the July low of 5,262 as a downside target for the KOSPI correction. He said breaking below 5,262 is a matter of time in his current reading.
He also addressed the rally that brought the index from 5,450 up toward 5,800. He characterized this as a three-wave move — meaning a corrective bounce — rather than the start of a new impulse. A three-wave rally inside a downtrend, he said, is a continuation signal for the existing trend rather than a reversal. He cautioned traders not to mistake the bounce for the beginning of a new bull market. The KOSPI, in his view, still needs to print a lower low beneath 5,262 before the corrective phase is exhausted and a genuine upside sequence can begin.
Bitcoin: Short-Term Bounce, Unfinished Corrective Structure
Brian Kim spent the most time on Bitcoin, and his analysis covered multiple timeframes simultaneously. He opened by pushing back against the social media commentary suggesting that a new bull market has already started. He acknowledged that some analysts and market participants are pointing to new capital flows and on-chain data as evidence of a resumption, but he said his obligation as an Elliott Wave analyst is to present what the wave count is telling him, not what he hopes will happen.
The Preferred Count: Correction Still in Progress
His primary reading is that Bitcoin is currently inside a large corrective decline. He placed the current position within the third orange wave of a larger downward structure. He identified two key levels tied to this preferred scenario. First, 82,535 is the second key level (the trigger), meaning that breaking below this level would, in his reading, confirm that the third orange wave has started. Second, he said Bitcoin needs to move below 57,717. In his preferred Bitcoin count, he identified 57,717 as a downside target for the continuing correction.
He also discussed the 85,744 level. He noted that when he applied the 786 Fibonacci retracement to the relevant wave, the result was 85,744 — a level the bounce did not come close to reaching. He presented 85,744 as the resistance level relevant during the current short-term bounce, and the fact that the bounce fell well short of this level factored into his reading that the bounce was a corrective move rather than a new impulse.
He added that the recent high he was watching was 84,856, which overshot the 618 Fibonacci reference of 84,447 by 400 points. He said the second correction in his count commonly reaches the 618 to 786 Fibonacci zone, and the price stopped short of the 786 level at 85,744.
The Alternate Count: Even If Bulls Are Right, Correction Is Still Needed
Brian Kim then walked through what he called the alternate scenario — a hypothetical count in which the bull market has already started. He said: assume the July low at 57,000 was the bottom, and assume the rally to 87,000 was wave 1 of a new bull sequence. Even under that assumption, he said, a wave 2 correction of the first wave still needs to occur before the bull market can continue. Under his alternate bull-market assumption, he described the rise from 57,000 to 87,000 as a 30,000-point move and said a subsequent wave 2 correction commonly retraces 62%. He was explicit that 68,000 is the target for the wave 2 correction under this alternate scenario where the bull market is assumed to have begun. The correction that has occurred so far, he said, has only brought the price from 87,000 down to approximately 79,000, which he described as insufficient. Even the shallowest common retracement, he said, would require a deeper move than what has been seen.
He concluded this section by stating his position has not changed: he is still looking for a significant corrective move, and whether the count is read as the preferred scenario or the alternate scenario, the result is the same — more corrective price action is needed before a sustained upside move can be trusted.
Wave Count Confidence and Invalidation
Brian Kim acknowledged his Elliott Wave reading could be wrong. He said he never presents any count as completely certain. His stated condition for reconsidering the bear case is the appearance of a clear, complete five-wave impulse structure on the chart — what he called confirming price action. Until that appears, he said, he will continue to position his analysis around the downside scenario.
He also described the one-hour chart reading he shared with subscribers, which showed a leading diagonal structure in the most recent decline — a pattern he associates with first waves or A-waves in corrective sequences. He said the double correction pattern he is tracking — an A-B-C-W, A-B-C-X, A-B-C-Y sequence — mirrors the pattern he identified on the KOSPI, and he noted that Bitcoin’s corrective structures have historically followed Elliott Wave patterns more cleanly than equity indices because Bitcoin’s price is driven by pure crowd psychology without the interference of central bank rate decisions or fiscal policy.
Conclusion: Three Markets, One Structural Message
Brian Kim’s analysis across all three markets arrives at the same structural conclusion: corrective phases that began earlier in the cycle are not yet finished. On the US 10-year yield, his wave count places the rate inside the fifth red wave with internal sub-waves still developing, making 6% the target level as the Elliott Wave fifth-wave progression continues rather than a ceiling to be feared and avoided. On the KOSPI, he described the current bounce as corrective and identified the July low of 5,262 as a downside target. On Bitcoin, his preferred corrective count identifies 57,717 as a downside target.
He was consistent throughout in preserving uncertainty — each scenario carries the caveat that the Elliott Wave count may be wrong, and he stated that confirming price action is required before he changes his directional view on Bitcoin.
On Bitcoin, he identified 82,535 as a key level for confirming the start of the third orange wave. Monitoring how price behaves at each of these levels will determine whether his current wave readings remain valid.
Full video analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1ACRJgYNKc&t=511s
