This analysis is based on Brian Kim’s broadcast of (the third week of September). At that time Bitcoin traded near $75,600; at the time of writing () it was near $82,900 (reference prices: CoinGecko daily data). The price levels and conditions discussed below refer to the market as it stood at the time of the broadcast.
Elliott Wave analyst Brian Kim opened his most recent XRP review by noting that the asset’s recent sluggishness has generated significant concern among holders who watched the token rally sharply before its momentum faded. Rather than offering reassurance, he directed attention to an unresolved structural problem inside the current corrective sequence — one that, in his reading, signals further downside ahead regardless of which of two possible patterns ultimately plays out.
The diagnosis is rooted in wave counting. In his reading of the XRP four-hour chart, Kim stated that the C-wave has so far shown only three internal sub-waves, and that the count is not yet complete. Until that internal count completes, he concluded, the correction has not ended. Two scenarios remain on the table for how that completion unfolds, but both point in the same direction in the near term: lower prices before any durable recovery becomes plausible.
Before diving into the current structure, Kim briefly acknowledged the track record that preceded this call. On April 16, he had stated on a broadcast that a fifth wave was still needed, and that price had to clear a specific prior level. He noted that on June 10 that level was broken. He added that his key concern at that point was that a particular reference zone had to remain untouched — if it were breached, he said, the decline could extend far more severely. That zone was ultimately not broken, and by August 27, he reflected, the analysis had tracked his view at a rate of 98%.
The C-Wave Structure and Its Missing Waves
Kim’s primary reading of the XRP four-hour chart centers on an A-B-C corrective sequence. He described his current reading of the chart as showing what appears to be a completed first corrective wave, followed by what he sees as a traced second corrective wave — though he noted the overall picture remains uncertain. In his primary scenario, a C-wave decline would follow to continue the corrective sequence.
The central problem Kim identified is that the C-wave itself is not a simple move. He stated that a C-wave concludes with five internal sub-waves — counts one through five — not three. In his current reading, the chart shows only three internal waves present inside the C-wave so far. He stated that the C-wave concludes with five internal sub-waves, and that right now only three are visible inside it.” Using his words directly: “the C-wave doesn’t end at one, two, three counts.” Because five sub-waves are required and only three are visible, Kim concluded that the corrective structure is incomplete and that additional downside is still ahead.
He also considered whether the current wave from the recent low might represent waves one and two of the C-wave’s internal sequence, with wave three still forming. Under that sub-count, he noted, the structure would point toward an even more extended decline. He stated the pattern would need to unfold as one, two, then three, four, five from a lower starting point — a development he flagged as implying more downside than the surface reading might initially suggest. He did not, however, specify a price target for where that C-wave bottom would ultimately land.
Kim has continued to watch the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as one reference point in this analysis, though he did not state that level as a confirmed or guaranteed floor for the correction.
The Alternate Path: A Double Correction (W-X-Y)
Kim introduced a second scenario that he said cannot be ruled out. In this alternate reading, the pattern is not a straightforward A-B-C correction but instead a double correction structured as W-X-Y.
Under this alternate scenario, the initial decline would be labeled as W rather than A. The rally that followed would then be classified as an X-wave rather than a B-wave bounce, under the alternate double-correction scenario he outlined. In that alternate scenario, a Y-wave decline would still be part of the structure that has yet to resolve.
Kim was careful to maintain the distinction between these two scenarios. He acknowledged that at the time of his analysis, he could not definitively confirm which of the two patterns is unfolding. What he could state with confidence is that both lead to the same short-term conclusion: XRP requires additional downside before the correction can be considered complete. Whether the final leg lower arrives as the C-wave’s missing fourth and fifth sub-waves, or as a Y-wave in a double correction, the structural implication is the same.
He also pointed to the day’s low near $1.30 — the level from which a bounce appeared to emerge — noting that observation in the context of monitoring the pattern’s development. He did not assign that level a target role; it appeared in his analysis as the point where the day’s low formed and a bounce appeared to initiate.
Long-Term Chart Framing and the Importance of Macro Context
A recurring theme in Kim’s analysis is the relationship between short-term wave counts and the longer-term structural picture. He emphasized that in Elliott Wave analysis, getting the macro count right is a prerequisite for short-term counts to carry any practical value. As he put it: the long-term picture needs to be correctly framed before short-term counting becomes meaningful. Without that anchor, he argued, trying to trade short-term moves produces little useful guidance.
In that spirit, Kim noted that at the daily chart level, he is tracking a larger pink wave structure — specifically referencing what he described as a second pink wave that has not yet finished. He suggested that the completion of this larger correction could take approximately two weeks, though he framed that estimate as a rough approximation rather than a fixed projection. He said the correction ending in about two weeks “wouldn’t it,” leaving the timeline open to revision.
He also addressed the relationship between XRP and Bitcoin. Kim acknowledged that XRP does not move in complete isolation from Bitcoin — if Bitcoin follows through on a move toward $82,000, XRP would likely participate in some degree of upside as a result. Conversely, if Bitcoin then enters the C-wave decline he has also been tracking for that asset, XRP would be expected to follow downward. However, he was explicit that he analyzes each asset on its own structural terms, and he does not force synchronization between them. He treats Bitcoin as a reference, not a mechanical driver of his XRP count.
Kim briefly referenced other altcoins — including Solana, Chainlink, and a token he referred to as Hyperliquid — as examples of positions where his wave analysis had contributed to successful reads. He did not integrate those examples into the XRP count directly; they served as context for the broader point that macro wave framing tends to precede successful short-term calls.
Conclusion: Patience Is the Structural Position
The core message of Kim’s XRP analysis is straightforward: the corrective structure is not finished. He identified an incomplete internal wave count inside the C-wave, where three sub-waves are visible but five are needed. He outlined a second possibility — the double correction pattern — that would also require further downside before resolution. In both scenarios, the analyst’s conclusion is the same: XRP has to wait.
Kim’s view is that all bear markets and corrective sequences conclude with five waves, not two or three. The current XRP chart, in his reading, has not yet produced that five-wave completion. Until it does, he advises watching rather than acting, and he underscored that the 0.618 Fibonacci level remains a reference he is monitoring — without assigning it as a definitive target or confirmed bottom.
For traders following XRP, Kim’s analysis frames the present moment as one requiring structural patience. The short-term bounce from the day’s low near $1.30 — the level where a reversal appeared to initiate — does not, in his view, signal the end of the correction. Until the wave count becomes clear, Kim’s view is that the correction has not ended and XRP has to wait.
Full video analysis: https://youtu.be/r2Lr4brb44U?si=W0U6W-odxAONJ1v2
